Early warning systeM for soil dEgRadation: a statistical physics Approach to cLimate change aDaptation

Climate change is an urgent challenge and impacts ecosystems, society and economic activities. Here we focus on the problem of loss of fertile soil (soil degradation), a process that is induced and accelerated by extreme weather and climate change and affects, among other sectors, agriculture, land use planning and food security. Current tools to monitor soil health for commercial purposes or policymaking are either limited in scale due to high cost, or insufficiently accurate due to the lack of underlying robust models.The EMERALD Proof of Concept aims to test, further develop, and promote final users' uptake of a novel soil fertility monitoring and forecasting method founded in the statistical physics of disordered systems. The expertise built on the underlying physics of spin systems as part of the ERC starting grant will be applied to the accurate modelling of vegetation growth, substantially building on our promising preliminary results.This early warning and large scale survey of soil degradation offers an effective climate change adaptation tool, helping farmers, agricultural organization and governments in land use planning on the medium and long term. The use of earth observation data will ensure a scalable solution to tackle the problem of desertification globally.The final aim is to develop the research results into a service, evaluate the market, obtain the first users, evaluate its impact and develop a comprehensive non-profit commercial strategy for the uptake of this technology.