Weather forecasts for proactive short-term AGRicultural climate change ADAPTation

Because crop growth is directly dependent on climate, the agricultural sector is arguably the most climate-vulnerable sector. Extreme weather events (EWE), worsened by climate change, can severely impact yields. Climate adaptation is crucial to mitigate this damage. Although most research has been done on long-term adaptation (i.e., farm measures taken in response to long-run climate change) farmers can take short-term measures in response to forecasted EWEs to reduce weather-induced damage. The 2023-27 Common Agricultural Policy dedicates inadequate attention towards this type of adaptation. Rather, it encourages the uptake of insurance to cover weather-induces losses subsidising insurance premiums. This project aims to gain insight into the adoption of proactive adaptation based on forecasts, its economic benefit and its complementarity to weather insurance in order to advise policymakers on a subsidy allocation which is in line with the Farm to Fork Strategy, which pursues a more resilient agricultural system.The research will involve a comprehensive assessment of how EWEs, as defined by insurers’ weather indices, impact farm economic performance. It will provide an in-depth analysis of how farmers use weather forecasts to proactively adapt. The project will also evaluate the economic value of these proactive measures in reducing the impact of EWEs. Finally, the project aims to disseminate these findings to policymakers. The project will employ a mix of qualitative and quantitative methods, including literature reviews, stakeholder interviews and econometric analysis, focusing on European horticulture and permanent crop farms.The researcher, aspiring a senior research career with expertise in the economics of climate adaptation, will gain significant scientific expertise and transferable skills from this project. The host institution, recognised as a leading university in agricultural sciences, will position her well for a senior research role in the future.