Robotics, AI, and the Future of Work in China: Transforming Skill Demand and Earning Distribution

This project examines how technological changes, particularly robotics and AI, reshape labor markets and earning distribution in developing economies, with a focus on China. The study measures skills across three dimensions: education, task content, and occupation. By integrating diverse data sources—job vacancy data, industrial robot installations, AI patent records, customs data, and firm-level employee records—it aims to provide a nuanced understanding of technological impacts. The research will culminate in two papers: one using firm-level data and another utilizing Python-scraped job vacancy data, both offering comprehensive insights into labor market transformations.The first paper employs a Difference-in-Differences (DID) model, treating the “Made in China 2025” policy as a quasi-natural experiment to analyze how industrial policies influence skill structure and earning distribution. This analysis goes beyond the state of the art by developing a task-based skill index tailored to China’s labor market, avoiding biases from foreign data sources like the U.S. O*NET. The second paper focuses on AI’s impact on short-term labor demand, utilizing Bartik IVs to estimate the density of industrial robot installations at the city level.Innovatively, It integrates traditional human capital theory with emerging concepts of cognitive and non-cognitive skills. It will provide policymakers with actionable insights on the future of work, guiding decisions on labor regulations and education reforms. The interdisciplinary approach, merging economics, informatics, and sociology, ensures the findings are both scientifically rigorous and socially relevant.With open science practices, including data sharing and stakeholder engagement, the project promotes transparency and collaboration. It contributes to the broader understanding of how technological changes influence skill demand and earning dynamics, crucial for shaping future labor market policies in China and beyond.