Transport resilience and adaptive networks: a holistic framework for multi-scale optimization under uncertainty in a rapidly changing mobility environment

Multimodal passenger mobility networks in urban areas are subject to constant change due to technological innovations, new business models and expansion of the current infrastructure to accommodate growing number of travellers and adapt to innovative mobility solutions. Consequently, there are several major concerns to be addressed while adapting the current transport network to an evolving environment: i) given limited space and constantly growing demand in urban areas transport operators and public authorities need to guarantee that long-term costly investments will improve mobility service level for passengers, and result in efficient usage of resources for service providers; ii) multimodal transport management is highly affected by both local and global disruptions (uncertainties) such as accidents, infrastructural malfunctions, and extreme weather and climate conditions. Short- and long-term asset management require identifying these uncertainties and accurately quantifying them to maximize efficient usage of available resources, and finally, iii) travellers’ behavioural response to sudden disruptions and their long-term adaptation to new mobility solutions must be measured to guarantee the usability of mobility services in a changing environment. TRANSFORM will develop a breakthrough smart “estimate-then-optimize” framework for a robust multi timescale asset management of multimodal transport systems in an uncertain environment. TRANSFORM will introduce cutting-edge predictive models coupled with novel adaptive real-time optimization methods that leverage real-time data analytics and advanced optimization algorithms, setting this approach apart from traditional asset management frameworks. TRANSFORM will assess travellers’ behavioural adaptation to new mobility solutions, enabling the implementation of targeted demand steering strategies to ensure high system usability and passenger satisfaction.